Would the missing outcomes change your mind?
Change the totals. Watch the conclusion. Use anonymous counts only, in one currency.
The readout
The apparent winner is not settled.
Possible range
160.00 to 200.00
Possible range
142.86 to 250.00
6 additional outcomes from Campaign B's 15 unresolved records would make it cheaper, if the other campaign gains none.
The range assumes none or all of the unresolved records become outcomes. It assigns no probability. It cannot establish incremental sales, profit or what the next dollar will produce.
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Method / transparent by design
A range is more honest than a confident guess.
Confirmed cost = spend ÷ confirmed outcomes. The lowest possible cost = spend ÷ (confirmed + unresolved). The highest remains the confirmed cost if no unresolved record becomes an outcome. With no confirmed outcome, that upper limit cannot be expressed as a finite cost.
This is a sensitivity check on attribution completeness. It is not a statistical confidence interval or evidence that one campaign caused more sales. An unresolved record means its outcome is genuinely unknown, not that it has failed.
- Use the same currency and equivalent outcomes. Do not compare booked calls with paid contracts.
- Give both cohorts equal time to mature. A younger cohort can look worse merely because its outcomes have not happened yet.
- Deduplicate. A record can contribute at most one outcome and belongs to only one campaign.
- Keep value and margin in the next decision. Cheaper outcomes are not automatically more profitable.
Read the worked example and decision method, or use the five-check attribution guide to find the broken link.